MID TRUMP
How the decisions of one presidency changed the price of goods, energy, money and risk, and why Tuesday’s vote matters far beyond America
Roberto Balbino | FINTECH SCB
Sunday, November 1, 2026
A president does not set the world’s prices. But a president can change the conditions under which the world prices almost everything.
A tariff changes the cost of bringing a product into a country. A military operation changes the probability that a tanker reaches its destination. A tax law changes the government’s future borrowing requirements. An immigration decision changes the supply of workers. A nomination changes who sets the cost of money. A regulatory decision changes which financial products can exist, which institutions can hold them and how much investors are willing to pay for them.
Donald Trump’s second presidency has operated through every one of these channels, often at the same time.
The consequences appear in places that do not look political: a German manufacturer’s energy bill, an American mortgage application, a Brazilian company’s dollar funding, a Japanese importer’s working capital, a Bitcoin liquidation, the discount rate used to value a data centre, the refund cheque that a customs broker is now chasing on behalf of a client.
This is the economic meaning of MID TRUMP.
The United States is approaching the midpoint of a presidential term that began on January 20, 2025. Strictly speaking, the period under examination is twenty-one months, not two completed years. It has been long enough for the major decisions to move from announcements into prices, contracts, investment plans and public finances. It has not been long enough for all of them to finish passing through.