BREXIT: TEN YEARS LATER, THE ECONOMIC PROMISE HAS FAILED

Ten years after the Brexit referendum, the economic evidence is becoming increasingly difficult to reconcile with the optimistic promises made to the British public in 2016.

The United Kingdom did not collapse after Brexit. That was never the relevant test.

The relevant question was whether leaving the European Union would make Britain richer, more productive, more competitive and economically more independent.

The evidence points in the opposite direction.

Britain remains a major economy. Its services sector is exceptionally strong. Employment remains high. Financial markets continue to function and the UK remains an important destination for international capital.

But these facts do not demonstrate that Brexit was an economic success.

They demonstrate something much simpler:

Britain has remained economically resilient despite the additional costs created by Brexit.

And that distinction matters.

THE BRITAIN OF 2016

When Britons voted in June 2016, the economic starting point was considerably stronger than the subsequent political narrative sometimes suggests.

GDP was growing by around 4% in nominal terms in 2016 and by 4.6% in 2017. GDP per head was also growing: real GDP per capita increased by 1.4% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017.

The labour market was particularly strong.

In 2016, the employment rate for people aged 16–64 reached approximately 74.4%, while unemployment fell to around 4.9%. At the end of 2016, Britain had more than 31 million people in work.

This was not an economy on the verge of collapse.

It was an economy operating inside the world’s largest integrated single market, with frictionless trade in goods, extensive freedom to provide services across borders, integrated supply chains and free movement of labour.